Person: Hansen, J.W.
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Hansen
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J.W.
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Hansen, J.W.
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0000-0002-8599-7895 8 results
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- Climate information services enhance farmers' resilience to climate change: Impacts on agricultural productivity(Elsevier B.V., 2025) Seneshaw Tamru; Hansen, J.W.; Zebiak, S.E.; Tesfaye, A.; Minten, B.; Teferi Demissie; Radeny, M.; Fantaye, K.T.; Solomon, D.
Publication - Re-prioritizing climate services for agriculture: Insights from Bangladesh(Elsevier B.V., 2022) Mason, S.J.; Krupnik, T.J.; Hansen, J.W.; Braun, M.; Hussain, S.G.; Md. Shah Kamal Khan; Mannan, M.A.; Curtis, A.; Eunjin Han; Kruczkiewicz, A.
Publication - A multi-scale and multi-model gridded framework for forecasting crop production, risk analysis, and climate change impact studies(Elsevier, 2019) Shelia, V.; Hansen, J.W.; Sharda, V.; Porter, C.; Aggarwal, P.K.; Wilkerson, C.J.; Hoogenboom, G.Regional crop production forecasting is growing in importance in both, the public and private sectors to ensure food security, optimize agricultural management practices and use of resources, and anticipate market fluctuations. Thus, a model and data driven, easy-to-use forecasting and a risk assessment system can be an essential tool for end-users at different levels. This paper provides an overview of the approaches, algorithms, design, and capabilities of the CCAFS Regional Agricultural Forecasting Toolbox (CRAFT) for gridded crop modeling and yield forecasting along with risk analysis and climate impact studies. CRAFT is a flexible and adaptable software platform designed with a user-friendly interface to produce multiple simulation scenarios, maps, and interactive visualizations using a crop engine that can run the pre-installed crop models DSSAT, APSIM, and SARRA-H, in concert with the Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) for seasonal climate forecasts. Its integrated and modular design allows for easy adaptation of the system to different regional and scientific domains. CRAFT requires gridded input data to run the crop simulations on spatial scales of 5 and 30 arc-minutes. Case studies for South Asia for two crops, including wheat and rice, shows its potential application for risk assessment and in-season yield forecasting.
Publication - In-season crop yield forecasting using CCAFS regional agricultural forecasting toolbox (CRAFT) in Nepal(CGIAR CCAFS, 2018) Gyawali, D.R.; Shirsath, P.B.; Damodar Kanel; Kurt Burja; Khatri-Chhetri, A.; Aggarwal, P.K.; Hansen, J.W.; Rose, A.The unpredictability of crop yields in climate vulnerable regions is damaging in many ways, negatively impacting food security as well as imports, exports, food prices, and people’s livelihoods. The CCAFS Regional Agricultural Forecasting Toolbox (CRAFT) is an open source, flexible crop-forecasting platform that includes a crop simulation module, a weather and seasonal forecast simulation module, and a geographic information system module. The toolbox aims to provide information to ensure better management of agricultural risks associated with increased climate variability and extreme weather events. It uses historical databases of weather and crop yields and current weather to estimate yields of various crops. Advances in crop forecasting technology and crop modelling help with the estimation of inseason crop yields under a variable climate, which enables stakeholders such as policy makers, line agencies, cooperatives, extension workers, and farmers to better prepare the mitigation strategies to cope with risks. From November 2014 through December 2016, CRAFT was implemented in Nepal to forecast yields of wheat and paddy; forecast levels aligned closely with Ministry estimates. Currently, CRAFT is being tested for yield forecasting at the sub-national level in Nepal. The main objective of this paper is to present the status and performance of CRAFT for food security monitoring in Nepal. It presents the data inputs, the methodology and structure of the model, results and performance, limitations, and assumptions made in forecasting the yields of paddy and wheat for different seasons in Nepal.
Publication - Urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts (SDG 13): transforming agriculture and food systems(Elsevier, 2018) Campbell, B.M.; Hansen, J.W.; Rioux, J.; Stirling, C.; Twomlow, S.; Wollenberg, E.Actions on climate change (SDG 13), including in the food system, are crucial. SDG 13 needs to align with the Paris Agreement, given that UNFCCC negotiations set the framework for climate change actions. Food system actions can have synergies and trade-offs, as illustrated by the case for nitrogen fertiliser. SDG 13 actions that reduce emissions can have positive impacts on other SDGs (e.g. 3, 6, 12, 14, 15); but such actions should not undermine the adaptation goals of SDG 13 and SDGs 1, 2, 5 and 10. Balancing trade-offs is thus crucial, with SDG 12 central: responsible consumption and production. Transformative actions in food systems are needed to achieve SDG 13 (and other SDGs), involving technical, policy, capacity enhancement and finance elements. But transformative actions come with risks, for farmers, investors, development agencies and politicians. Likely short and long term impacts need to be understood.
Publication - Climate risk management and rural poverty reduction(Elsevier, 2019) Hansen, J.W.; Hellin, J.; Rosenstock, T.; Fisher, E.; Cairns, J.E.; Stirling, C.; Lamanna, C.; Etten, J. van; Rose, A.; Campbell, B.M.Climate variability is a major source of risk to smallholder farmers and pastoralists, particularly in dryland regions. A growing body of evidence links climate-related risk to the extent and the persistence of rural poverty in these environments. Stochastic shocks erode smallholder farmers' long-term livelihood potential through loss of productive assets. The resulting uncertainty impedes progress out of poverty by acting as a disincentive to investment in agriculture – by farmers, rural financial services, value chain institutions and governments. We assess evidence published in the last ten years that a set of production technologies and institutional options for managing risk can stabilize production and incomes, protect assets in the face of shocks, enhance uptake of improved technologies and practices, improve farmer welfare, and contribute to poverty reduction in risk-prone smallholder agricultural systems. Production technologies and practices such as stress-adapted crop germplasm, conservation agriculture, and diversified production systems stabilize agricultural production and incomes and, hence, reduce the adverse impacts of climate-related risk under some circumstances. Institutional interventions such as index-based insurance and social protection through adaptive safety nets play a complementary role in enabling farmers to manage risk, overcome risk-related barriers to adoption of improved technologies and practices, and protect their assets against the impacts of extreme climatic events. While some research documents improvements in household welfare indicators, there is limited evidence that the risk-reduction benefits of the interventions reviewed have enabled significant numbers of very poor farmers to escape poverty. We discuss the roles that climate-risk management interventions can play in efforts to reduce rural poverty, and the need for further research on identifying and targeting environments and farming populations where improved climate risk management could accelerate efforts to reduce rural poverty.
Publication - The climate-smart village approach: framework of an integrative strategy for scaling up adaptation options in agriculture(Resilience Alliance, 2018) Aggarwal, P.K.; Jarvis, A.; Campbell, B.M.; Zougmore, R.B.; Khatri-Chhetri, A.; Vermeulen, S.; Loboguerrero, A.M.; Sebastian, L.; Kinyangi, J.; Bonilla-Findji, O.; Radeny, M.; Recha, J.; Martínez Barón, D.; Ramirez-Villegas, J.; Huyer, S.; Thornton, P.; Wollenberg, E.; Hansen, J.W.; Alvarez Toro, P.; Aguilar Ariza, A.; Arango Londoño, D.; Patiño Bravo, V.; Rivera, O.; Ouédraogo, M.; Bui Tan YenIncreasing weather risks threaten agricultural production systems and food security across the world. Maintaining agricultural growth while minimizing climate shocks is crucial to building a resilient food production system and meeting developmental goals in vulnerable countries. Experts have proposed several technological, institutional, and policy interventions to help farmers adapt to current and future weather variability and to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This paper presents the climate-smart village (CSV) approach as a means of performing agricultural research for development that robustly tests technological and institutional options for dealing with climatic variability and climate change in agriculture using participatory methods. It aims to scale up and scale out the appropriate options and draw out lessons for policy makers from local to global levels. The approach incorporates evaluation of climate-smart technologies, practices, services, and processes relevant to local climatic risk management and identifies opportunities for maximizing adaptation gains from synergies across different interventions and recognizing potential maladaptation and trade-offs. It ensures that these are aligned with local knowledge and link into development plans. This paper describes early results in Asia, Africa, and Latin America to illustrate different examples of the CSV approach in diverse agroecological settings. Results from initial studies indicate that the CSV approach has a high potential for scaling out promising climate-smart agricultural technologies, practices, and services. Climate analog studies indicate that the lessons learned at the CSV sites would be relevant to adaptation planning in a large part of global agricultural land even under scenarios of climate change. Key barriers and opportunities for further work are also discussed.
Publication - A roadmap for evidence-based insurance development for Nigeria's farmers(CGIAR, 2017) Hansen, J.W.; Araba, D.; Hellin, J.; Goslinga, R.In 2014, Nigeria’s Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (FMARD) proposed a major expansion of agricultural insurance in the context of other reforms to the agricultural sector, and as part of the implementation of its National Agricultural Resilience Framework (NARF). This report is designed to inform development of inclusive insurance for Nigeria’s agriculture sector, and is offered as a contribution to the NARF. It is an outcome of a consultative process that began in September 2014 between FMARD and the CGIAR research program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS). By overcoming the problems of moral hazard, adverse selection, and resulting high transaction costs and processing delays that have plagued indemnity-based agricultural insurance, index-based insurance makes it feasible to insure millions of smallholder farmers. Well-designed index insurance can achieve specific risk objectives such as protecting farmers’ livelihoods in the face of major climate shocks, and promoting farmers’ livelihoods by overcoming barriers to adoption of improved agricultural technologies and practices, and access to market opportunities. Reviews of index-based agricultural insurance initiatives have identified several success factors that are relevant to the situation in Nigeria. First, successful initiatives have been designed to unlock particular opportunities for farmers that were previously constrained by particular risks. Second, initiatives are most successful when they are driven by demand and responsive to farmer input. Third, successful initiatives have invested in the capacity of a range of local stakeholders. Fourth, investments in data systems, and in science-based index development, have helped address the challenges of data poverty and basis risk. Fifth, successful index insurance requires an enabling regulatory environment. Finally, successful initiatives involve multi-stakeholder partnerships, and often public-private partnerships. A strategy for expanding insurance for Nigeria’s smallholder farmers must address challenges that include: limited and asymmetric information; crowding out by post disaster relief efforts; limited access to reinsurance markets; lack of insurance culture; and inadequate regulatory environments. The development of effective market based agricultural insurance, requires 4 government support in five key areas: data systems; awareness and capacity building; facilitating international risk pooling; “smart” subsidies; and an enabling policy environment. Three immediate priorities are identified: (a) creating a regulatory environment that makes it attractive for insurance companies to enter the market; (b) developing a public-private partnership that incentivizes and supports companies to develop innovative products and services for the agriculture sector; and (c) progressively expand implementation through well designed pilots, evaluation and learning processes. The organizations that have been involved or consulted in the process leading to this report offer relevant expertise.
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