Person: Gbegbelegbe, S.D.
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Gbegbelegbe
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S.D.
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Gbegbelegbe, S.D.
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0000-0001-6373-6195 11 results
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- Chapter 30. What do we know about the future of maize value chains in a changing climate and agrifood system?(IFPRI, 2025) Fantaye, K.T.; Sonder, K.; Pequeno, D.N.L.; Hartley, F.; Gbegbelegbe, S.D.
Publication - Economic, social and environmental ex ante impacts of scaling mechanized direct-seeded rice technology package: evidence from Cambodia(EIA, 2024) Oyakhilomen Oyinbo; Chamberlin, J.; Gbegbelegbe, S.D.; Flor, R.J.
Publication - Effects of dietary change - Synthesis across the case studies(CIMMYT, 2021) Kruseman, G.; Mottaleb, K.A.; Frija, A.; Gbegbelegbe, S.D.; Bairagi, S.; Springmann, M.
Publication - Thinking big for smallholder agriculture: realizing agricultural potentials in changing times(2021) Prager, S.D.; Schiek, B.; Petsakos, A.; Kruseman, G.; Gbegbelegbe, S.D.; Terheggen, A.; Mason-D'croz, D.
Publication - Rural transformation and the future of cereal-based agri-food systems(Elsevier, 2020) Kruseman, G.; Mottaleb, K.A.; Fantaye, K.T.; Bairagi, S.; Robertson, R.; Mandiaye, D.; Frija, A.; Gbegbelegbe, S.D.; Alene, A.D.; Prager, S.D.
Publication - Foresight for Maize and Wheat(CIMMYT, 2018) Gbegbelegbe, S.D.; Kruseman, G.; Frija, A.
Publication - Quantifying the impact of weather extremes on global food security: A spatial bio-economic approach(Elsevier, 2014) Gbegbelegbe, S.D.; Chung, U.; Shiferaw, B.; Msangi, S.; Fantaye, K.T.This study uses a spatial bio-economic modelling framework to estimate the impact of the 2012 weather extreme in the USA on food security in the developing world. The study also quantifies the potential effects of a similar weather extreme occurring in 2050 under climate change. The study results indicate that weather extremes that affect maize productivity in key grain baskets can negatively affect food security in vulnerable countries. The 2012 weather extreme which occurred in the USA reduced US and global maize production by 29% compared to trend; maize consumption in the country decreased by 5% only and this resulted in less surplus maize for exports from the largest maize exporter in the world. Global maize production decreased by 6% compared to trend. The decrease in global maize production coupled with a reduction in the volume of global maize exports worsened food insecurity in eastern Africa, the Caribbean and Central America and India. The effects of the weather extreme on global food security would be worse, if the latter were to occur under climate change in 2050, assuming no climate change adaptation worldwide over the years. In addition, the hardest-hit regions would remain the same, whether the weather extreme occurs in 2012 instead of 2050: Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), South Asia and the Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) region. However, sustained growth in per capita income across world economies between 2000 and 2050 would allow few countries in SSA and the LAC region to virtually eliminate hunger within their borders. In these countries, per capita income would be high enough by 2050 to completely offset the negative effect of the weather extreme. The study results are also consistent with USDA׳s estimates on US and global maize production and consumption in 2012 after the weather extreme. Some discrepancy is found on the volume of global maize trade; this implies that the bio-economic model likely overestimates the effect of the weather extreme on food insecurity. However, the trends from the analysis are likely to be valid. Further research would involve using a CGE model that can capture the net effects of weather extremes.
Publication - Climate change impacts and potential benefits of heat-tolerant maize in South Asia(Springer, 2017) Fantaye, K.T.; Zaidi, P.H.; Gbegbelegbe, S.D.; Böber, C.; Rahut, D.B.; Getaneh, F.; Seetharam, K.; Erenstein, O.; Stirling, C.Monitoring of genetic gain in crop genetic improvement programs is necessary to measure the efficiency of the program. Periodic measurement of genetic gain also allows the efficiency of new technologies incorporated into a program to be quantified. Genetic gain within the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Centre (CIMMYT) breeding program for eastern and southern Africa were estimated using time series of maize (Zea mays L.) hybrids. A total of 67 of the best-performing hybrids from regional trials from 2000 to 2010 were selected to form an era panel and evaluated in 32 trials in eight locations across six countries in eastern and southern Africa. Treatments included optimal management, managed and random drought stress, low-nitrogen (N) stress and maize streak virus (MSV) infestation. Genetic gain was estimated as the slope of the regression of grain yield on the year of hybrid release. Genetic gain under optimal conditions, managed drought, random drought, low N, and MSV were estimated to have increased by 109.4, 32.5, 22.7, 20.9 and 141.3 kg ha−1 yr−1, respectively. These results are comparable with genetic gain in maize yields in other regions of the world. New technologies to further increase the rate of genetic gain in maize breeding for eastern and southern Africa are also discussed.
Publication - Potential impact of climate change trends on wheat production and mitigation strategies in Afghanistan(Canadian Center of Science and Education, 2015) Sharma, R.; Sonder, K.; Gbegbelegbe, S.D.Climate change is here and continues unabated. It is expected to affect different biological processes differently. Afghanistan has a varied climate profile and depends heavily on wheat, the staple food of its 30 million people. The irrigated wheat occupying about 1.35 million hectare and contributes major chunk of wheat to national granaries compared to rainfed wheat which is more opportunistic with an unpredictable and uncertain share in national harvest. Previous decades have already seen a reduction of up to 100 mm wheat season rainfall and more reductions are estimated by 2050. Also, wheat which is a cool season crop and is also estimated to face higher temperatures by up to 5 degree Celsius across several provinces in the country. The study predicts variable impact of the estimated changes on the productivity of irrigated and rainfed wheat in Afghanistan.
Publication - Modeling the effect of a heat wave on maize production in the USA and its implications on food security in the developing world(Elsevier, 2014) Chung, U.; Gbegbelegbe, S.D.; Shiferaw, B.; Robertson, R.; Jin I. Yun; Fantaye, K.T.; Hoogenboom, G.; Sonder, K.This study uses geo-spatial crop modeling to quantify the biophysical impact of weather extremes. More specifically, the study analyzes the weather extreme which affected maize production in the USA in 2012; it also estimates the effect of a similar weather extreme in 2050, using future climate scenarios. The secondary impact of the weather extreme on food security in the developing world is also assessed using trend analysis. Many studies have reported on the significant reduction in maize production in the USA due to the extreme weather event (combined heat wave and drought) that occurred in 2012. However, most of these studies focused on yield and did not assess the potential effect of weather extremes on food prices and security. The overall goal of this study was to use geo-spatial crop modeling and trend analysis to quantify the impact of weather extremes on both yield and, followed food security in the developing world. We used historical weather data for severe extreme events that have occurred in the USA. The data were obtained from the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). In addition we used five climate scenarios: the baseline climate which is typical of the late 20th century (2000s) and four future climate scenarios which involve a combination of two emission scenarios (A1B and B1) and two global circulation models (CSIRO-Mk3.0 and MIROC 3.2). DSSAT 4.5 was combined with GRASS GIS for geo-spatial crop modeling. Simulated maize grain yield across all affected regions in the USA indicates that average grain yield across the USA Corn Belt would decrease by 29% when the weather extremes occur using the baseline climate. If the weather extreme were to occur under the A1B emission scenario in the 2050s respectively, average grain yields would decrease by 38% and 57%, under the CSIRO-Mk3.0 and MIROC 3.2 global climate models, respectively. The weather extremes that occurred in the USA in 2012 resulted in a sharp increase in the world maize price. In addition, it likely played a role in the reduction in world maize consumption and trade in 2012/13, compared to 2011/12. The most vulnerable countries to the weather extremes are poor countries with high maize import dependency ratios including those countries in the Caribbean, northern Africa and western Asia. Other vulnerable countries include low-income countries with low import dependency ratios but which cannot afford highly-priced maize. The study also highlighted the pathways through which a weather extreme would affect food security, were it to occur in 2050 under climate change. Some of the policies which could help vulnerable countries counter the negative effects of weather extremes consist of social protection and safety net programs. Medium- to long-term adaptation strategies include increasing world food reserves to a level where they can be used to cover the production losses brought by weather extremes.
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