The potential for wheat production in Africa: analysis of biophysical suitability and economic profitability

Abstract

A key staple in Africa, wheat is increasingly in demand in sub-Saharan Africa as a result of income growth and rapid urbanization, but sub-Saharan countries and Africa as a whole respectively produce only about 30% and 40% of their domestic requirements, causing a heavy dependence on imports and making the region highly vulnerable to global market and supply shocks. Conducted jointly by CIMMYT and IFPRI for 12 sub-Saharan African countries, this study used geographic information systems, simulation models, and economic analyses to conclude that the countries are using less than 10% of their potential for profitable wheat production. Unlocking that potential will require changes in attitudes, policy and donor support for adapting farming systems, empowering African farmers, and developing value chains for seeds, input supply, and output markets.