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Assessing high-impact spots of climate change: spatial yield simulations with Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) model

Author: Eitzinger, A.
Author: Läderach, P.
Author: Rodriguez, B.
Author: Fisher, M.
Author: Beebe, S.
Author: Sonder, K.
Author: Schmidt, A.
Year: 2017
URI: https://hdl.handle.net/10883/19359
Abstract: Drybeans (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) are an important subsistence crop in Central America. Future climate change may threaten drybean production and jeopardize smallholder farmers’ food security. We estimated yield changes in drybeans due to changing climate in these countries using downscaled data from global circulation models (GCMs) in El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua. We generated daily weather data, which we used in the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) drybean submodel. We compared different cultivars, soils, and fertilizer options in three planting seasons.We analyzed the simulated yields to spatially classify high-impact spots of climate change across the four countries. The results show a corridor of reduced yields from Lake Nicaragua to central Honduras (10–38 % decrease). Yields increased in the Guatemalan highlands, towards the Atlantic coast, and in southern Nicaragua (10–41 % increase). Some farmers will be able to adapt to climate change, but others will have to change crops, which will require external support. Research institutions will need to devise technologies that allow farmers to adapt and provide policy makers with feasible strategies to implement them.
Abstract: Drybeans (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) are an important subsistence crop in Central America. Future climate change may threaten drybean production and jeopardize smallholder farmers’ food security. We estimated yield changes in drybeans due to changing climate in these countries using downscaled data from global circulation models (GCMs) in El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua. We generated daily weather data, which we used in the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) drybean submodel. We compared different cultivars, soils, and fertilizer options in three planting seasons. We analyzed the simulated yields to spatially classify high-impact spots of climate change across the four countries. The results show a corridor of reduced yields from Lake Nicaragua to central Honduras (10–38 % decrease). Yields increased in the Guatemalan highlands, towards the Atlantic coast, and in southern Nicaragua (10–41 % increase). Some farmers will be able to adapt to climate change, but others will have to change crops, which will require external support. Research institutions will need to devise technologies that allow farmers to adapt and provide policy makers with feasible strategies to implement them.
Language: English
Publisher: Springer
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Type: Article
Place: Netherlands
Pages: 743-760
Issue: 5
Journal: Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change
Volume: 22
DOI: 10.1007/s11027-015-9696-2
Keywords: DSSAT Drybean Submodel
Keywords: High Impact Spots
Keywords: Simulation Modeling
Country of Focus: NORTH AMERICA
Country of Focus: HONDURAS
Country of Focus: EL SALVADOR
Country of Focus: GUATEMALA
Country of Focus: ATLANTIC
Country of Focus: NICARAGUA
Agrovoc: DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS
Agrovoc: CLIMATE CHANGE
Agrovoc: PHASEOLUS VULGARIS
Agrovoc: FOOD SECURITY
Agrovoc: YIELD FACTORS
Agrovoc: SIMULATION MODELS


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  • Socioeconomics
    Including topics such as farming systems, markets, impact & targeting, innovations, and GIS

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