Author:
| Eitzinger, A. |
Author:
| Läderach, P. |
Author:
| Rodriguez, B. |
Author:
| Fisher, M. |
Author:
| Beebe, S. |
Author:
| Sonder, K. |
Author:
| Schmidt, A. |
Year:
| 2017 |
URI:
| https://hdl.handle.net/10883/19359 |
Abstract:
| Drybeans (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) are an important subsistence crop in Central America. Future climate change may threaten drybean production and jeopardize smallholder farmers’ food security. We estimated yield changes in drybeans due to changing climate in these countries using downscaled data from global circulation models (GCMs) in El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua. We generated daily weather data, which we used in the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) drybean submodel. We compared different cultivars, soils, and fertilizer options in three planting seasons.We analyzed the simulated yields to spatially classify high-impact spots of climate change across the four countries. The results show a corridor of reduced yields from Lake Nicaragua to central Honduras (10–38 % decrease). Yields increased in the Guatemalan highlands, towards the Atlantic coast, and in southern Nicaragua (10–41 % increase). Some farmers will be able to adapt to climate change, but others will have to change crops, which will require external support. Research institutions will need to devise technologies that allow farmers to adapt and provide policy makers with feasible strategies to implement them. |
Format:
| PDF |
Language:
| English |
Publisher:
| Springer Verlag |
Copyright:
| CIMMYT manages Intellectual Assets as International Public Goods. The user is free to download, print, store and share this work. In case you want to translate or create any other derivative work and share or distribute such translation/derivative work, please contact CIMMYT-Knowledge-Center@cgiar.org indicating the work you want to use and the kind of use you intend; CIMMYT will contact you with the suitable license for that purpose. |
Type:
| Article |
Place of Publication:
| Netherlands |
Pages:
| 743-760 |
Issue:
| 5 |
Volume:
| 22 |
DOI:
| 10.1007/s11027-015-9696-2 |
Keywords:
| DSSAT Drybean Submodel |
Keywords:
| High Impact Spots |
Keywords:
| Simulation Modeling |
Country of Focus:
| NORTH AMERICA |
Country of Focus:
| HONDURAS |
Country of Focus:
| EL SALVADOR |
Country of Focus:
| GUATEMALA |
Country of Focus:
| ATLANTIC |
Country of Focus:
| NICARAGUA |
Agrovoc:
| DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS |
Agrovoc:
| CLIMATE CHANGE |
Agrovoc:
| PHASEOLUS VULGARIS |
Agrovoc:
| FOOD SECURITY |
Agrovoc:
| YIELD FACTORS |
Agrovoc:
| SIMULATION MODELS |
Journal:
| Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change |