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Advances in crop insect modelling methods—Towards a whole system approach

Author: Tonnang, H.
Author: Bisseleua, D.H.B.
Author: Biber-Freudenberger, L.
Author: Salifu, D.
Author: Subramanian, S.
Author: Ngowi, B.V.
Author: Guimapi, R.Y.A.
Author: Bruce, S.Y.
Author: Kakmeni, F.M.M.
Author: Affognon, H.D.
Author: Niassy, S.
Author: Landmann, T.
Author: Ndjomatchoua, F.T.
Author: Pedro, S.A.
Author: Johansson, T.
Author: Tanga, C. M.
Author: Nana, P.
Author: Fiaboe, K.M.
Author: Mohamed, S.F.
Author: Maniani, N.K.
Author: Nedorezov, L.V.
Author: Ekesi, S.
Author: Borgemeister, C.
Year: 2017
ISSN: 0304-3800
ISSN: 0304-3800
URI: https://hdl.handle.net/10883/19218
Descriptors: Pest control
Descriptors: Insect control
Abstract: A wide range of insects affect crop production and cause considerable yield losses. Difficulties reside on the development and adaptation of adequate strategies to predict insect pests for their timely management to ensure enhanced agricultural production. Several conceptual modelling frameworks have been proposed, and the choice of an approach depends largely on the objective of the model and the availability of data. This paper presents a summary of decades of advances in insect population dynamics, phenology models, distribution and risk mapping. Existing challenges on the modelling of insects are listed; followed by innovations in the field. New approaches include artificial neural networks, cellular automata (CA) coupled with fuzzy logic (FL), fractal, multi-fractal, percolation, synchronization and individual/agent-based approaches. A concept for assessing climate change impacts and providing adaptation options for agricultural pest management independently of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenarios is suggested. A framework for estimating losses and optimizing yields within crop production system is proposed and a summary on modelling the economic impact of pests control is presented. The assessment shows that the majority of known insect modelling approaches are not holistic; they only concentrate on a single component of the system, i.e. the pest, rather than the whole crop production system. We suggest system thinking as a possible approach for linking crop, pest, and environmental conditions to provide a more comprehensive assessment of agricultural crop production.
Language: English
Publisher: Elsevier
Copyright: CIMMYT manages Intellectual Assets as International Public Goods. The user is free to download, print, store and share this work. In case you want to translate or create any other derivative work and share or distribute such translation/derivative work, please contact CIMMYT-Knowledge-Center@cgiar.org indicating the work you want to use and the kind of use you intend; CIMMYT will contact you with the suitable license for that purpose.
Type: Article
Place: Amsterdam, Netherlands
Pages: 88-103
Journal: Ecological Modelling
Journal volume: 354
DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2017.03.015
Audicence: Researchers


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  • Sustainable Intensification
    Sustainable intensification agriculture including topics on cropping systems, agronomy, soil, mechanization, precision agriculture, etc.

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