2023-01-142023-01-142022https://hdl.handle.net/10883/22405CIMMYT manages Intellectual Assets as International Public Goods. The user is free to download, print, store and share this work. In case you want to translate or create any other derivative work and share or distribute such translation/derivative work, please contact CIMMYT-Knowledge-Center@cgiar.org indicating the work you want to use and the kind of use you intend; CIMMYT will contact you with the suitable license for that purposeAGRICULTURAL SCIENCES AND BIOTECHNOLOGYArticle10.1088/1748-9326/aca77cRadiation Use EfficiencyWheat Potential YieldCrop Model EnsembleGlobal Food SecurityWheat is the most widely grown food crop, with 761 Mt produced globally in 2020. To meet the expected grain demand by mid-century, wheat breeding strategies must continue to improve upon yield-advancing physiological traits, regardless of climate change impacts. Here, the best performing doubled haploid (DH) crosses with an increased canopy photosynthesis from wheat field experiments in the literature were extrapolated to the global scale with a multi-model ensemble of process-based wheat crop models to estimate global wheat production. The DH field experiments were also used to determine a quantitative relationship between wheat production and solar radiation to estimate genetic yield potential. The multi-model ensemble projected a global annual wheat production of 1050 ± 145 Mt due to the improved canopy photosynthesis, a 37% increase, without expanding cropping area. Achieving this genetic yield potential would meet the lower estimate of the projected grain demand in 2050, albeit with considerable challenges.CLIMATE CHANGECROPSFOOD SUPPLYPHOTOSYNTHESISCROP MODELLINGFOOD SECURITYMODEL ENSEMBLESWHEATYIELD INCREASESBREEDINGOpen AccessWheat