2019-04-172019-04-172019ISSN: 2211-9124https://hdl.handle.net/10883/20114Nutrient limitation is a major constraint in crop production in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Here, we propose a generic and simple equilibrium model to estimate minimum input requirements of nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium for target yields in cereal crops under highly efficient management. The model was combined with Global Yield Gap Atlas data to explore minimum input requirements for self-sufficiency in 2050 for maize in nine countries in SSA. We estimate that yields have to increase from the current ca. 20% of water-limited yield potential to approximately 50–75% of the potential depending on the scenario investigated. Minimum nutrient input requirements must rise disproportionately more, with N input increasing 9-fold or 15-fold, because current production largely relies on soil nutrient mining, which cannot be sustained into the future.PDFCIMMYT manages Intellectual Assets as International Public Goods. The user is free to download, print, store and share this work. In case you want to translate or create any other derivative work and share or distribute such translation/derivative work, please contact CIMMYT-Knowledge-Center@cgiar.org indicating the work you want to use and the kind of use you intend; CIMMYT will contact you with the suitable license for that purpose.AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES AND BIOTECHNOLOGYArticle10.1016/j.gfs.2019.02.001Crop Nutrient RequirementsFood Self-SufficiencyINTENSIFICATIONMAIZECEREALSYIELD GAPNUTRIENTSFOOD SECURITYSOIL FERTILITYZEA MAYSOpen Access