Technical change and wheat productivity in the Indian Punjab in the post green revolution period

Abstract

Major changes in the wheat economy of Punjab State, India, since the Widespread adoption of modern varieties (MVs) in the early 1970s, are summarized from an analysis of trends in micro-level farm data and by using an index of total factor productivity to measure productivity growth in wheat production. Although the use of land-saving inputs (especially fertilizers and herbicides) rose during the 1970s and 1980s, the use of labor-saving technologies (especially tractors) increased even more rapidly. Labor-saving technologies thus reversed the trend toward higher labor inputs in wheat production observed at the start of the Green Revolution. Relative input prices changed little between 1972 and 1989, but the real producer price of wheat fell consistently. Thus, although farmers initially benefited from the surplus generated by increased productivity, by the 1970s and 1980s wheat consumers were receiving most of those benefits. Changes calculated in total factor productivity support these findings, especially with regard to gains in productivity arising from land-saVing compared to labor-saving technologies. The data presented cast no doubt on the near-term sustainability of wheat productivity levels in the Punjab, though specific changes in the quality of the resource base were not measured. However, future sources of yield gains as high as the gains seen in the recent past are not readily apparent. A more likely source of future gains in productivity will be more efficient use of inputs, including fertilizer and water.