Wheat: the vital grain of civilization and food security ; Wheat CRP: annual report 2013

Abstract

Recurrent food crises – combined with the global financial meltdown, volatile energy prices, natural resource depletion, and climate change – undercut and threaten the livelihoods of millions of poor people. Accounting for a fifth of humanity’s food, wheat is second only to rice as a source of calories in the diets of developing country consumers, and it is first as a source of protein. Wheat is an especially critical “staff of life” for the approximately 1.2 billion “wheat dependent” to 2.5 billion “wheat consuming” poor – men, women and children who live on less than US $2 per day – and approximately 30 million poor wheat producers and their families. Demand for wheat in the developing world is projected to increase 60% by 2050. At the same time, climate-change-induced temperature increases are likely to reduce wheat production in developing countries by 20-30%. As a result, prices will more than double in real terms, eroding the purchasing power of poor consumers and creating conditions for widespread social unrest. This scenario is worsened by stagnating yields, soil degradation, increasing irrigation and fertilizer costs, and virulent new disease and pest strains.