Symposium on global climate change: imperatives for agricultural research in Asia-Pacific

Abstract

The fourth assessment report of the Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), released in 2007, has revealed that increases in the emission of green house gases (GHGs) have resulted in warming of the climate system by 0.74°C between 1906 and 2005. It has further projected that temperature increase by the end of this century is likely to be in the range 2 to 4.5°C. It is expected that future tropical cyclones will become more intense, with larger peak wind speeds and heavier precipitation. Himalayan glaciers and snow cover are projected to contract. It is also very likely that hot extremes, heat waves, and heavy precipitation events will continue to become more frequent. Increases in the amount of precipitation are expected more in high-latitudes, while decreases are likely in most sub-tropical regions. At the same time, the projected sea level rise by the end of this century is likely to be between 0.18 to 0.59 meters. Such global climatic changes are affecting agriculture through their direct and indirect effects on crops, soils, livestock and pests, and hence the global food security. IPCC report has particularly indicated vulnerability of developing countries of the Asian region, especially its mega deltas to increasing climate change and variability due to its large population, predominance of agriculture, large climatic variability, and limited resources to adapt. There are likely to be negative effects on livestock productivity due to increased heat stress, lower pasture productivity, and increased risks of animal diseases. Increasing sea surf ace temperature and acidification are projected to lead to changes in marine species distribution and production. Extreme events including floods, droughts, forest fires, and tropical cyclones have already increased in temperate and tropical Asia in the last few decades. Runoff and water availability are projected to decrease in the arid and semi-arid regions of Asia. Sea-level rise and an increase in the intensity of tropical cyclones is expected to displace tens of millions of people in the low-lying coastal areas of Asia; whereas increased intensity of rainfall would increase flood risks in temperate and tropical Asia. Asia is the home for more than one half of the world population. The rapid and continuing increase in population implies increased demand for food. It is estimated that by 2020, food grain requirement in Asia would be almost 30-50% more than the current demand. This will have to be produced from the same or even shrinking land resource due to increasing competition for land and other resources by nonagricultural sector. Accordingly, the world food situation will be strongly dominated by the changes that would occur in Asia because of its huge population, changes in diet pattern and associated increased demand for food and feed. Agriculture, consisting of cropland, pasture, and livestock production, contribute 13% of total anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. This does not include indirect sources relating to fertilizer and food processing industries. The agriculture sector therefore provides, in principle, a significant potential for green house gas mitigation. Alleviating poverty and attaining food security would be the major challenges to most countries in the Asia-Pacific region in the 21st century. Producing enough food for the increased population with reduced resources in adverse environmental scenario would be a major challenging task for most developing nations. Concerted efforts would be needed to maximize food production, minimize environmental degradation and attain socio-economic development through reorientation of agricultural research that would comprehensively address all urgent concerns including adaptation to and mitigation of climatic change. It is with this background, adaptation to and mitigation of climatic change was identified as an important subject by the members of APAARI during an earlier Expert Consultation on Research Need Assessment organized during late 2006. Accordingly, APAARI in collaboration with JIRCAS organized a Symposium to develop required framework for reorientation of agricultural research to address specific issues related to the climate change adaptation and mitigation in crops, livestock, fisheries and agro-forestry. The symposium had plenary sessions and panel discussions to debate the key issues and to develop appropriate recommendations for research to enhance adaptive capacity and mitigation potential of agriculture in Asia Pacific region while ensuring continued agricultural growth and development. This Symposium was held at JIRCAS, Tsukuba, Japan on 21-22 October 2008 and was co-sponsored by GFAR, CIMMYT, ICARDA, ICRISAT and AVRDC. The specific objectives of this meeting were: 1. To review the current state of understanding of the climate change and to assess its impacts on agriculture in Asia-Pacific region. 2. To understand and analyze the available scientific, technological, and policy options in the region for adaptation and mitigation to climatic change and their possible implications in agriculture. 3. To identify short-, medium-, and long-term research priorities that would ensure enhanced adaptation and mitigation in agriculture.