Show simple item record

Threat of wheat blast to South Asia’s food security: an ex-ante analysis

Author: Mottaleb, K.A.
Author: Singh, P.K.
Author: Sonder, K.
Author: Kruseman, G.
Author: Tiwari, T.P.
Author: Barma, N.C.D.
Author: Malaker, P.K.
Author: Braun, H.J.
Author: Erenstein, O.
Year: 2018
ISSN: 1932-6203
URI: https://hdl.handle.net/10883/19515
Abstract: New biotic stresses have emerged around the globe over the last decades threatening food safety and security. In 2016, scientists confirmed the presence of the devastating wheat-blast disease in Bangladesh, South Asia?its first occurrence outside South America. Severely blast-affected wheat fields had their grain yield wiped out. This poses a severe threat to food security in a densely-populated region with millions of poor inhabitants where wheat is a major staple crop and per capita wheat consumption has been increasing. As an ex ante impact assessment, this study examined potential wheat-blast scenarios in Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan. Based on the agro-climatic conditions in the epicenter, where the disease was first identified in Bangladesh in 2016, this study identified the correspondingly vulnerable areas in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh amounting to 7 million ha. Assuming a conservative scenario of 5?10% for blast-induced wheat production loss, this study estimated the annual potential wheat loss across the sampled countries to be 0.89?1.77 million tons, equivalent to USD 132?264 million. Such losses further threaten an already-precarious national food security, putting pressure on wheat imports and wheat prices. The study is a call for action to tackle the real wheat-blast threat in South Asia. © 2018 Mottaleb et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
Format: PDF
Language: English
Publisher: Public Library of Science
Copyright: CIMMYT manages Intellectual Assets as International Public Goods. The user is free to download, print, store and share this work. In case you want to translate or create any other derivative work and share or distribute such translation/derivative work, please contact CIMMYT-Knowledge-Center@cgiar.org indicating the work you want to use and the kind of use you intend; CIMMYT will contact you with the suitable license for that purpose.
Type: Article
Region: South Asia
Place of Publication: San Francisco, Calif., U.S.
Issue: 5, art. e0197555
Volume: 13
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0197555
Country of Focus: BANGLADESH
Country of Focus: INDIA
Country of Focus: ASIA
Country of Focus: PAKISTAN
Agrovoc: WHEAT
Agrovoc: INFECTIOUS DISEASES
Agrovoc: FOOD SECURITY
Agrovoc: RISK ASSESSMENT
Related Datasets: http://hdl.handle.net/11529/10979
Journal: PLoS ONE


Files in this item

Thumbnail

This item appears in the following Collection(s)

  • Wheat
    Wheat - breeding, phytopathology, physiology, quality, biotech

Show simple item record