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Temperature-dependent phenology of Plutella xylostella (Lepidoptera: Plutellidae): simulation and visualization of current and future distributions along the Eastern Afromontane

Author: Ngowi, B.V.
Author: Tonnang, H.
Author: Mwangi, E.M.
Author: Johansson, T.
Author: Ambale, J.
Author: Ndegwa, P.N.
Author: Subramanian, S.
Year: 2017
ISSN: 1932-6203
URI: https://hdl.handle.net/10883/19485
Abstract: There is a scarcity of laboratory and field-based results showing the movement of the diamondback moth (DBM) Plutella xylostella (L.) across a spatial scale. We studied the population growth of the diamondback moth (DBM) Plutella xylostella (L.) under six constant temperatures, to understand and predict population changes along altitudinal gradients and under climate change scenarios. Non-linear functions were fitted to continuously model DBM development, mortality, longevity and oviposition. We compiled the best-fitted functions for each life stage to yield a phenology model, which we stochastically simulated to estimate the life table parameters. Three temperature-dependent indices (establishment, generation and activity) were derived from a logistic population growth model and then coupled to collected current (2013) and downscaled temperature data from AFRICLIM (2055) for geospatial mapping. To measure and predict the impacts of temperature change on the pest’s biology, we mapped the indices along the altitudinal gradients of Mt. Kilimanjaro (Tanzania) and Taita Hills (Kenya) and assessed the differences between 2013 and 2055 climate scenarios. The optimal temperatures for development of DBM were 32.5, 33.5 and 33°C for eggs, larvae and pupae, respectively. Mortality rates increased due to extreme temperatures to 53.3, 70.0 and 52.4% for egg, larvae and pupae, respectively. The net reproduction rate reached a peak of 87.4 female offspring/female/generation at 20°C. Spatial simulations indicated that survival and establishment of DBM increased with a decrease in temperature, from low to high altitude. However, we observed a higher number of DBM generations at low altitude. The model predicted DBM population growth reduction in the low and medium altitudes by 2055. At higher altitude, it predicted an increase in the level of suitability for establishment with a decrease in the number of generations per year. If climate change occurs as per the selected scenario, DBM infestation may reduce in the selected region. The study highlights the need to validate these predictions with other interacting factors such as cropping practices, host plants and natural enemies.
Format: PDF
Language: English
Publisher: Public Library of Science
Copyright: CIMMYT manages Intellectual Assets as International Public Goods. The user is free to download, print, store and share this work. In case you want to translate or create any other derivative work and share or distribute such translation/derivative work, please contact CIMMYT-Knowledge-Center@cgiar.org indicating the work you want to use and the kind of use you intend; CIMMYT will contact you with the suitable license for that purpose.
Type: Article
Place of Publication: San Francisco, USA
Issue: 3
Volume: 12
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0173590
Agrovoc: PLUTELLA XYLOSTELLA
Agrovoc: CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION
Agrovoc: TORTRICIDAE
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Journal: PLoS ONE


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  • Sustainable Intensification
    Sustainable intensification agriculture including topics on cropping systems, agronomy, soil, mechanization, precision agriculture, etc.

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