Potential impact of climate change trends on wheat production and mitigation strategies in Afghanistan

Abstract

Climate change is here and continues unabated. It is expected to affect different biological processes differently. Afghanistan has a varied climate profile and depends heavily on wheat, the staple food of its 30 million people. The irrigated wheat occupying about 1.35 million hectare and contributes major chunk of wheat to national granaries compared to rainfed wheat which is more opportunistic with an unpredictable and uncertain share in national harvest. Previous decades have already seen a reduction of up to 100 mm wheat season rainfall and more reductions are estimated by 2050. Also, wheat which is a cool season crop and is also estimated to face higher temperatures by up to 5 degree Celsius across several provinces in the country. The study predicts variable impact of the estimated changes on the productivity of irrigated and rainfed wheat in Afghanistan.