Evidence for increasing global wheat yield potential

Guarin, J.R.; Martre, P.; Ewert, F.; Webber, H.; Dueri, S.; Calderini, D.; Reynolds, M.P.; Molero, G.; Miralles, D.; Garcia, G.; Slafer, G.; Giunta, F.; Pequeno, D.N.L.; Stella, T.; Mukhtar Ahmed; Alderman, P.D.; Basso, B.; Berger, A.G.; Bindi, M.; Bracho-Mujica, G.; Cammarano, D.; Yi Chen; Dumont, B.; Rezaei, E.E.; Fereres, E.; Ferrise, R.; Gaiser, T.; Yujing Gao; Garcia-Vila, M.; Gayler, S.; Hochman, Z.; Hoogenboom, G.; Hunt, L.A.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Nendel, C.; Olesen, J.E.; Palosuo, T.; Priesack, E.; Pullens, J.W.M.; Rodríguez, A.; Rötter, R.P.; Ruiz Ramos, M.; Semenov, M.A.; Senapati, N.; Siebert, S.; Srivastava, A.K.; Stöckle, C.; Supit, I.; Fulu Tao; Thorburn, P.J.; Wang, E.; Weber, T.K.D.; Liujun Xiao; Zhao Zhang; Chuang Zhao; Zhao, J.; Zhigan Zhao; Yan Zhu; Asseng, S.

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Description

Wheat is the most widely grown food crop, with 761 Mt produced globally in 2020. To meet the expected grain demand by mid-century, wheat breeding strategies must continue to improve upon yield-advancing physiological traits, regardless of climate change impacts. Here, the best performing doubled haploid (DH) crosses with an increased canopy photosynthesis from wheat field experiments in the literature were extrapolated to the global scale with a multi-model ensemble of process-based wheat crop models to estimate global wheat production. The DH field experiments were also used to determine a quantitative relationship between wheat production and solar radiation to estimate genetic yield potential. The multi-model ensemble projected a global annual wheat production of 1050 ± 145 Mt due to the improved canopy photosynthesis, a 37% increase, without expanding cropping area. Achieving this genetic yield potential would meet the lower estimate of the projected grain demand in 2050, albeit with considerable challenges.

URI

https://hdl.handle.net/10883/22405

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Journal

Environmental Research Letters

Journal volume

17

Journal issue

12

Article number

124045

Place of Publication

United Kingdom

Publisher

IOP Publishing

DOI

https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aca77c

AGROVOC

CLIMATE CHANGE; CROPS; FOOD SUPPLY; PHOTOSYNTHESIS; CROP MODELLING; FOOD SECURITY; MODEL ENSEMBLES; WHEAT; YIELD INCREASES; BREEDING

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Link to the dataset

CGIAR Initiatives

Initiative

Accelerated Breeding

Impact Area

Nutrition, health & food security

Action Area

Genetic Innovation

Donor or Funder

International Wheat Yield Partnership (IWYP)
National Natural Science Foundation of China
Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC)

CGSpace URL

https://hdl.handle.net/10568/129183

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Wheat

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