Person: Hellin, J.
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Hellin
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Hellin, J.
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- Climate change and food security in the developing world: potential of maize and wheat research to expand options for adaptation and mitigation(Academic Journals, 2012) Hellin, J.; Shiferaw, B.; Cairns, J.E.; Reynolds, M.P.; Ortiz-Monasterio, I.; Banziger, M.; Sonder, K.; La Rovere, R.
Publication - A guide to scaling soil and water conservation in the Western Highlands of Guatemala(CIMMYT, 2019) Hellin, J.; Lopez-Ridaura, S.; Sonder, K.; Camacho Villa, T.C.; Gardeazabal, A.Central America has long-been recognized as a region prone to soil and land degradation (e.g., Scherr and Yadav (1996:21). The main cause of this soil degradation is twofold: much of Central America consists of steep hillsides and unequal land distribution that has forced many resource-poor farmers to farm these marginal areas (Hellin et al. 2017). The encroachment onto hillsides represents a move to an area of lower resilience (resistance to degradation) and higher sensitivity (degree to which soils degrade when subjected to degradation processes). Sloping lands are very susceptible to rapid soil degradation caused by physical, chemical and biological processes (Stocking, 1995). Central America’s mountains and heavy rainfall, as well as poor land management, make much of the region particularly vulnerable to soil degradation. In addition, the widespread conversion of forests to agriculture has created serious soil erosion problems in the region. In response, there are growing efforts directed at the promotion of soil and water conservation (SWC) technologies (Hellin and Schrader, 2003). Climate change is likely to lead to increased water scarcity in the coming decades (Lobell et al. 2008) and to changes in precipitation patterns. This will lead to more short-term crop failures and long-term production declines. Farmers have a long record of adapting to the impacts of climate variability, but predicted climate change represents an enormous challenge that will test farmers’ ability to adapt and improve their livelihoods (Adger et al. 2007). The fifth assessment report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for Central and South America concludes that farmers in Central America are particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. An increasing body of scientific evidence points to the negative impacts on Central American agriculture of changing temperature and rainfall patterns. Lobell et al. (2008) looked at the combined outputs of 20 of the latest GCM models for 2030 under three different emission scenarios and reported median precipitation declines of approximately -5% for Central America in both the winter (DecemberFebruary) and summer (June-August) seasons. This is of concern due to the fact that smallholder farming in Central America is predominantly rainfed. There is a need to work with farmers to develop climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies and to increase the countries’ capacity to adapt to climate change. Thus, climate smart agricultural practices have often been promoted. These are practices that contribute to: (1) increasing global food security; (2) enhancing farmers’ ability to adapt to a changing climate; and (3) mitigating greenhouse gas emissions. Many of these same practices were promoted in the 1980s and 1990s under the guise of SWC, but farmer non-adoption was far too common. Much can be learned from these past endeavors to ensure that current efforts are better designed, implemented and adopted. This manual suggests new approaches to SWC in Central America and describes tools and strategies to achieve them. The new approaches include: exploring other soil conservation options besides erosion control, examining the spatial context, examining farming systems as a whole, encouraging active farmer participation, and monitoring and evaluating the effects of the adopted technologies. The Buena Milpa project in Guatemala is presented as a case study that used these approaches, described in three separate boxes showing the scaling of soil conservation practices in the study area, its agricultural innovation system, and its monitoring and evaluation strategies.
Publication - Adapting maize production to climate change in sub-Saharan Africa(Springer Verlag, 2013) Cairns, J.E.; Hellin, J.; Sonder, K.; Araus, J.L.; MacRobert, J.; Thierfelder, C.; Prasanna, B.M.Given the accumulating evidence of climate change in sub-Saharan Africa, there is an urgent need to develop more climate resilient maize systems. Adaptation strategies to climate change in maize systems in sub-Saharan Africa are likely to include improved germplasm with tolerance to drought and heat stress and improved management practices. Adapting maize systems to future climates requires the ability to accurately predict future climate scenarios in order to determine agricultural responses to climate change and set priorities for adaptation strategies. Here we review the projected climate change scenarios for Africa?s maize growing regions using the outputs of 19 global climate models. By 2050, air temperatures are expected to increase throughout maize mega- environments within sub-Saharan Africa by an average of 2.1°C. Rainfall changes during the maize growing season varied with location. Given the time lag between the development of improved cultivars until the seed is in the hands of farmers and adoption of new management practices, there is an urgent need to prioritise research strategies on climate change resilient germplasm development to offset the predicted yield declines.
Publication - Tortillas on the roaster (ToR): central America maize-beans systems and the changing climate(CIMMYT, 2012) Schmidt, A.; Eitzinger, A.; Sonder, K.; Sain, G.; Rizo, L.; Rodriguez, B.; Hellin, J.; Fisher, M.; Laderach, P.; San Vicente Garcia, F.M.; Robertson, R.In order to be able to adapt to climate change, maize and bean producing smallholders in Central America have to know which type of changes and to which extent and ranges these changes will occur. Adaptation is only possible if global climate predictions are broken down on local levels, to give farmers a direction on what to adapt to, but also to provide detailed information about the extent of climate change impact and the exact location of the affected population to local, national, and regional governments and authorities, and the international cooperation/donors in order to coordinate and focus their interventions This technical report seeks to assess the expected impact of climate change on maize and bean production in four countries in Central America. We downscaled GCM (Global Climate Models) to a local scale, predicted future maize and bean production using the dynamic crop model DSSAT (Decision Support for Agro-technology Transfer), we identified based on the DSSAT-results 3 types of focus areas where impact is predicted to be significant and run DSSAT again with the full range of available GCMs to address uncertainty of model predictions. Outputs of downscaled climate data show that temperature is predicted to increase in the future, while precipitation will slightly reduce. Crop modeling shows that bean yields will decrease high along the dry belt in Central America and revealed a significant influence of soil fertility and soil water retention capacity especially on maize yield which will be drastically affected by climate change under such poor soil conditions. Furthermore, we identified hot-spots with more than 50% yield reduction as well as area with favorable growth conditions in the future. The conducted vulnerability analysis shows the low adaptive capacity at household level and the low availability of human and social capital across the region for climate change adaptation. Central America is highly vulnerable to climate change. Based on the results we finally made recommendations for adaptation- and mitigation strategies such as eco-efficient and sustainable intensification of the production system combing soil and fertility management with water harvesting schemes, marketed oriented high value plant production and plant genetic improvement for heat- and drought stress. The findings of the present study should enable decision makers on local, national and regional levels to take appropriate action in the right locations and provide an adequate policy framework for successful implementation of adaptation strategies in the rural sector of Central America.
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