Person:
Hansen, J.W.

Profile Picture
Email Address
Birth Date
Research Projects
Organizational Units
Job Title
Last Name
Hansen
First Name
J.W.
Name
Hansen, J.W.
ORCID ID
0000-0002-8599-7895

Filters

2017 - 20182
Reset filters

Settings

Type: Working Paper ×

Search Results

Now showing 1 - 2 of 2
  • Thumbnail Image
    In-season crop yield forecasting using CCAFS regional agricultural forecasting toolbox (CRAFT) in Nepal
    (CGIAR CCAFS, 2018) Gyawali, D.R.; Shirsath, P.B.; Damodar Kanel; Kurt Burja; Khatri-Chhetri, A.; Aggarwal, P.K.; Hansen, J.W.; Rose, A.
    The unpredictability of crop yields in climate vulnerable regions is damaging in many ways, negatively impacting food security as well as imports, exports, food prices, and people’s livelihoods. The CCAFS Regional Agricultural Forecasting Toolbox (CRAFT) is an open source, flexible crop-forecasting platform that includes a crop simulation module, a weather and seasonal forecast simulation module, and a geographic information system module. The toolbox aims to provide information to ensure better management of agricultural risks associated with increased climate variability and extreme weather events. It uses historical databases of weather and crop yields and current weather to estimate yields of various crops. Advances in crop forecasting technology and crop modelling help with the estimation of inseason crop yields under a variable climate, which enables stakeholders such as policy makers, line agencies, cooperatives, extension workers, and farmers to better prepare the mitigation strategies to cope with risks. From November 2014 through December 2016, CRAFT was implemented in Nepal to forecast yields of wheat and paddy; forecast levels aligned closely with Ministry estimates. Currently, CRAFT is being tested for yield forecasting at the sub-national level in Nepal. The main objective of this paper is to present the status and performance of CRAFT for food security monitoring in Nepal. It presents the data inputs, the methodology and structure of the model, results and performance, limitations, and assumptions made in forecasting the yields of paddy and wheat for different seasons in Nepal.
    Publication
  • Thumbnail Image
    A roadmap for evidence-based insurance development for Nigeria's farmers
    (CGIAR, 2017) Hansen, J.W.; Araba, D.; Hellin, J.; Goslinga, R.
    In 2014, Nigeria’s Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (FMARD) proposed a major expansion of agricultural insurance in the context of other reforms to the agricultural sector, and as part of the implementation of its National Agricultural Resilience Framework (NARF). This report is designed to inform development of inclusive insurance for Nigeria’s agriculture sector, and is offered as a contribution to the NARF. It is an outcome of a consultative process that began in September 2014 between FMARD and the CGIAR research program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS). By overcoming the problems of moral hazard, adverse selection, and resulting high transaction costs and processing delays that have plagued indemnity-based agricultural insurance, index-based insurance makes it feasible to insure millions of smallholder farmers. Well-designed index insurance can achieve specific risk objectives such as protecting farmers’ livelihoods in the face of major climate shocks, and promoting farmers’ livelihoods by overcoming barriers to adoption of improved agricultural technologies and practices, and access to market opportunities. Reviews of index-based agricultural insurance initiatives have identified several success factors that are relevant to the situation in Nigeria. First, successful initiatives have been designed to unlock particular opportunities for farmers that were previously constrained by particular risks. Second, initiatives are most successful when they are driven by demand and responsive to farmer input. Third, successful initiatives have invested in the capacity of a range of local stakeholders. Fourth, investments in data systems, and in science-based index development, have helped address the challenges of data poverty and basis risk. Fifth, successful index insurance requires an enabling regulatory environment. Finally, successful initiatives involve multi-stakeholder partnerships, and often public-private partnerships. A strategy for expanding insurance for Nigeria’s smallholder farmers must address challenges that include: limited and asymmetric information; crowding out by post disaster relief efforts; limited access to reinsurance markets; lack of insurance culture; and inadequate regulatory environments. The development of effective market based agricultural insurance, requires 4 government support in five key areas: data systems; awareness and capacity building; facilitating international risk pooling; “smart” subsidies; and an enabling policy environment. Three immediate priorities are identified: (a) creating a regulatory environment that makes it attractive for insurance companies to enter the market; (b) developing a public-private partnership that incentivizes and supports companies to develop innovative products and services for the agriculture sector; and (c) progressively expand implementation through well designed pilots, evaluation and learning processes. The organizations that have been involved or consulted in the process leading to this report offer relevant expertise.
    Publication