Person: Campbell, B.M.
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Campbell
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B.M.
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Campbell, B.M.
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0000-0002-0123-4859 8 results
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- How much does climate change add to the challenge of feeding the planet this century?(IOP Publishing, 2019) Aggarwal, P.K.; Vyas, S.; Thornton, P.; Campbell, B.M.The impacts of climate change on crop yields, as projected by a slew of impact assessments carried out since the 1980s, have brought the issue of future food insecurity to the fore. A meta-analysis of ∼27 000 data points from studies published over the last four decades reveals that at country level, average impacts of climate change on crop yields up to the 2050s are generally small (but negative) for rice and wheat, and modest for maize, provided farmers adopt practices and technologies such as improved varieties, planting at optimal times, and improved water and fertilizer management. These technologies also have the potential to reduce differences across political, economic and climatic regions. Once these are adopted, climate change may not add significantly to the challenge of food production for the majority of countries except for some potential hotspots distributed around the world. Massive investment, policy, and institutional support will be needed, however, to facilitate adoption and scaling-out of such practices, and to address climatic variability.
Publication - Importance of considering technology growth in impact assessments of climate change on agriculture(Elsevier, 2019) Aggarwal, P.K.; Vyas, S.; Thornton, P.; Campbell, B.M.; Kropff, MartinusMany assessments of climate change impacts on global crop yields project declines as early as the 2020s. Losses are projected to increase with time, up to 50% by the 2080s. We carry out a systematic global review and compare published projections of climate change impacts from 34 studies and ∼4500 data points for the 2020s for maize, rice and wheat at country level with observed and forecasted national crop yields for the same period based on available global crop statistics. We find that observed yield changes are considerably higher than projected yield changes arising from climate change because technological improvements appear to have a large yield-enhancing impact compared with the negative effects of climate change, at least in the short term. Most assessments of climate change impacts on crop yields show low-latitude, low and middle-income countries as highly vulnerable but these countries have shown the largest growth in observed yields over the same reference time period. These discrepancies are due to incomplete consideration of technological growth in climate impact assessments and large yield gaps in these countries, uncertainties associated with the methodologies used, and regional variations in adaptation options considered. Appropriate consideration of technological growth can add considerable value and relevance to global impact assessments, contributing to investment and development targeting at both large and small scales.
Publication - Urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts (SDG 13): transforming agriculture and food systems(Elsevier, 2018) Campbell, B.M.; Hansen, J.W.; Rioux, J.; Stirling, C.; Twomlow, S.; Wollenberg, E.Actions on climate change (SDG 13), including in the food system, are crucial. SDG 13 needs to align with the Paris Agreement, given that UNFCCC negotiations set the framework for climate change actions. Food system actions can have synergies and trade-offs, as illustrated by the case for nitrogen fertiliser. SDG 13 actions that reduce emissions can have positive impacts on other SDGs (e.g. 3, 6, 12, 14, 15); but such actions should not undermine the adaptation goals of SDG 13 and SDGs 1, 2, 5 and 10. Balancing trade-offs is thus crucial, with SDG 12 central: responsible consumption and production. Transformative actions in food systems are needed to achieve SDG 13 (and other SDGs), involving technical, policy, capacity enhancement and finance elements. But transformative actions come with risks, for farmers, investors, development agencies and politicians. Likely short and long term impacts need to be understood.
Publication - Facilitating change for climate-smart agriculture through science-policy engagement(MDPI, 2018) Dinesh, D.; Zougmore, R.B.; Vervoort, J.; Totin, E.; Thornton, P.; Solomon, D.; Shirsath, P.B.; Pede, V.O.; Lopez Noriega, I.; Laderach, P.; Korner, J.; Hegger, D.; Girvetz, E.; Friis, A.E.; Driessen, P.P.J.; Campbell, B.M.Climate change impacts on agriculture have become evident, and threaten the achievement of global food security. On the other hand, the agricultural sector itself is a cause of climate change, and if actions are not taken, the sector might impede the achievement of global climate goals. Science-policy engagement efforts are crucial to ensure that scientific findings from agricultural research for development inform actions of governments, private sector, non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and international development partners, accelerating progress toward global goals. However, knowledge gaps on what works limit progress. In this paper, we analyzed 34 case studies of science-policy engagement efforts, drawn from six years of agricultural research for development efforts around climate-smart agriculture by the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS). Based on lessons derived from these case studies, we critically assessed and refined the program theory of the CCAFS program, leading to a revised and improved program theory for science-policy engagement for agriculture research for development under climate change. This program theory offers a pragmatic pathway to enhance credibility, salience and legitimacy of research, which relies on engagement (participatory and demand-driven research processes), evidence (building scientific credibility while adopting an opportunistic and flexible approach) and outreach (effective communication and capacity building).
Publication - Climate risk management and rural poverty reduction(Elsevier, 2019) Hansen, J.W.; Hellin, J.; Rosenstock, T.; Fisher, E.; Cairns, J.E.; Stirling, C.; Lamanna, C.; Etten, J. van; Rose, A.; Campbell, B.M.Climate variability is a major source of risk to smallholder farmers and pastoralists, particularly in dryland regions. A growing body of evidence links climate-related risk to the extent and the persistence of rural poverty in these environments. Stochastic shocks erode smallholder farmers' long-term livelihood potential through loss of productive assets. The resulting uncertainty impedes progress out of poverty by acting as a disincentive to investment in agriculture – by farmers, rural financial services, value chain institutions and governments. We assess evidence published in the last ten years that a set of production technologies and institutional options for managing risk can stabilize production and incomes, protect assets in the face of shocks, enhance uptake of improved technologies and practices, improve farmer welfare, and contribute to poverty reduction in risk-prone smallholder agricultural systems. Production technologies and practices such as stress-adapted crop germplasm, conservation agriculture, and diversified production systems stabilize agricultural production and incomes and, hence, reduce the adverse impacts of climate-related risk under some circumstances. Institutional interventions such as index-based insurance and social protection through adaptive safety nets play a complementary role in enabling farmers to manage risk, overcome risk-related barriers to adoption of improved technologies and practices, and protect their assets against the impacts of extreme climatic events. While some research documents improvements in household welfare indicators, there is limited evidence that the risk-reduction benefits of the interventions reviewed have enabled significant numbers of very poor farmers to escape poverty. We discuss the roles that climate-risk management interventions can play in efforts to reduce rural poverty, and the need for further research on identifying and targeting environments and farming populations where improved climate risk management could accelerate efforts to reduce rural poverty.
Publication - The climate-smart village approach: framework of an integrative strategy for scaling up adaptation options in agriculture(Resilience Alliance, 2018) Aggarwal, P.K.; Jarvis, A.; Campbell, B.M.; Zougmore, R.B.; Khatri-Chhetri, A.; Vermeulen, S.; Loboguerrero, A.M.; Sebastian, L.; Kinyangi, J.; Bonilla-Findji, O.; Radeny, M.; Recha, J.; Martínez Barón, D.; Ramirez-Villegas, J.; Huyer, S.; Thornton, P.; Wollenberg, E.; Hansen, J.W.; Alvarez Toro, P.; Aguilar Ariza, A.; Arango Londoño, D.; Patiño Bravo, V.; Rivera, O.; Ouédraogo, M.; Bui Tan YenIncreasing weather risks threaten agricultural production systems and food security across the world. Maintaining agricultural growth while minimizing climate shocks is crucial to building a resilient food production system and meeting developmental goals in vulnerable countries. Experts have proposed several technological, institutional, and policy interventions to help farmers adapt to current and future weather variability and to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This paper presents the climate-smart village (CSV) approach as a means of performing agricultural research for development that robustly tests technological and institutional options for dealing with climatic variability and climate change in agriculture using participatory methods. It aims to scale up and scale out the appropriate options and draw out lessons for policy makers from local to global levels. The approach incorporates evaluation of climate-smart technologies, practices, services, and processes relevant to local climatic risk management and identifies opportunities for maximizing adaptation gains from synergies across different interventions and recognizing potential maladaptation and trade-offs. It ensures that these are aligned with local knowledge and link into development plans. This paper describes early results in Asia, Africa, and Latin America to illustrate different examples of the CSV approach in diverse agroecological settings. Results from initial studies indicate that the CSV approach has a high potential for scaling out promising climate-smart agricultural technologies, practices, and services. Climate analog studies indicate that the lessons learned at the CSV sites would be relevant to adaptation planning in a large part of global agricultural land even under scenarios of climate change. Key barriers and opportunities for further work are also discussed.
Publication - Reducing emissions from agriculture to meet the 2 °C target(Wiley, 2016) Wollenberg, E.; Richards, M.B.; Smith, P.; Havlík, P.; Obersteiner, M.; Tubiello, F.N.; Herold, M.; Gerber, P.; Carter, S.; Reisinger, A.; Van Vuuren, D.; Dickie, A.; Neufeldt, H.; Sander, B.O.; Wassmann, R.; Sommer, R.; Amonette, J.E.; Falcucci, A.; Herrero, M.; Opio, C.; Roman-Cuesta, R.M.; Stehfest, E.; Westhoek, H.; Ortiz-Monasterio, I.; Sapkota, T.; Rufino, M.C.; Thornton, P.; Verchot, L.; West, P.C.; Soussana, J.F.; Baedeker, T.; Sadler, M.; Vermeulen, S.; Campbell, B.M.More than 100 countries pledged to reduce agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the 2015 Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Yet technical information about how much mitigation is needed in the sector vs. how much is feasible remains poor. We identify a preliminary global target for reducing emissions from agriculture of ~1 GtCO2e yr−1 by 2030 to limit warming in 2100 to 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. Yet plausible agricultural development pathways with mitigation cobenefits deliver only 21–40% of needed mitigation. The target indicates that more transformative technical and policy options will be needed, such as methane inhibitors and finance for new practices. A more comprehensive target for the 2 °C limit should be developed to include soil carbon and agriculture-related mitigation options. Excluding agricultural emissions from mitigation targets and plans will increase the cost of mitigation in other sectors or reduce the feasibility of meeting the 2 °C limit.
Publication - Beyond climate-smart agriculture: toward safe operating spaces for global food systems(BioMed Central, 2013) Neufeldt, H.; Jahn, M.; Campbell, B.M.; Beddington, J.R.; Declerck, F.; De Pinto, A.; Gulledge, J.; Hellin, J.; Herrero, M.; Jarvis, A.; LeZaks, D.; Meinke, H.; Rosenstock, T.; Scholes, M.; Scholes, R.; Vermeulen, S.; Wollenberg, E.; Zougmore, R.B.Agriculture is considered to be "climate-smart" when it contributes to increasing food security, adaptation and mitigation in a sustainable way. This new concept now dominates current discussions in agricultural development because of its capacity to unite the agendas of the agriculture, development and climate change communities under one brand. In this opinion piece authored by scientists from a variety of international agricultural and climate research communities, we argue that the concept needs to be evaluated critically because the relationship between the three dimensions is poorly understood, such that practically any improved agricultural practice can be considered climate-smart. This lack of clarity may have contributed to the broad appeal of the concept. From the understanding that we must hold ourselves accountable to demonstrably better meet human needs in the short and long term within foreseeable local and planetary limits, we develop a conceptualization of climate-smart agriculture as agriculture that can be shown to bring us closer to safe operating spaces for agricultural and food systems across spatial and temporal scales. Improvements in the management of agricultural systems that bring us significantly closer to safe operating spaces will require transformations in governance and use of our natural resources, underpinned by enabling political, social and economic conditions beyond incremental changes. Establishing scientifically credible indicators and metrics of long-term safe operating spaces in the context of a changing climate and growing social-ecological challenges is critical to creating the societal demand and political will required to motivate deep transformations. Answering questions on how the needed transformational change can be achieved will require actively setting and testing hypotheses to refine and characterize our concepts of safer spaces for social-ecological systems across scales. This effort will demand prioritizing key areas of innovation, such as (1) improved adaptive management and governance of social-ecological systems; (2) development of meaningful and relevant integrated indicators of social-ecological systems; (3) gathering of quality integrated data, information, knowledge and analytical tools for improved models and scenarios in time frames and at scales relevant for decision-making; and (4) establishment of legitimate and empowered science policy dialogues on local to international scales to facilitate decision making informed by metrics and indicators of safe operating spaces.
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