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Kruseman, G.

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Kruseman
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Kruseman, G.
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0000-0002-3392-4176

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    Economic benefits of blast-resistant biofortified wheat in Bangladesh: the case of BARI Gom 33
    (Elsevier, 2019) Mottaleb, K.A.; Velu, G.; Singh, P.K.; Sonder, K.; Xinyao He; Singh, R.P.; Joshi, A.K.; Barma, N.C.D.; Kruseman, G.; Erenstein, O.
    The first occurrence of wheat blast in 2016 threatened Bangladesh's already precarious food security situation. The Bangladesh Agricultural Research Institute (BARI), together with the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) developed and released the wheat variety BARI Gom 33 that is resistant to wheat blast and other common diseases. The new variety provides a 5–8% yield gain over the available popular varieties, as well as being zinc enriched. This study examines the potential economic benefits of BARI Gom 33 in Bangladesh. First, applying a climate analogue model, this study identified that more than 55% of the total wheat-growing area in Bangladesh (across 45 districts) is vulnerable to wheat blast. Second, applying an ex-ante impact assessment framework, this study shows that with an assumed cumulative adoption starting from 2019–20 and increasing to 30% by 2027–28, the potential economic benefits of the newly developed wheat variety far exceeds its dissemination cost by 2029–30. Even if dissemination of the new wheat variety is limited to only the ten currently blast-affected districts, the yearly average net benefits could amount to USD 0.23–1.6 million. Based on the findings, international funder agencies are urged to support the national system in scaling out the new wheat variety and wheat research in general to ensure overall food security in Bangladesh and South Asia.
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    Alternative use of wheat land to implement a potential wheat holiday as wheat blast control: in search of feasible crops in Bangladesh
    (Elsevier, 2019) Mottaleb, K.A.; Singh, P.K.; Xinyao He; Hossain, A.; Kruseman, G.; Erenstein, O.
    The first occurrence of wheat blast in Bangladesh was confirmed in wheat (Triticum aestivum) fields in February 2016 and re-occurred in the subsequent years. This study explores the potential of alternative use of current wheat land as a strategy to combat the disease. Economically feasible alternative crops would need to be cultivated in the current wheat area by implementing a potential ‘wheat holiday’ – that is discontinuing wheat cultivation for a few years – be it in the 10 blast affected districts, in blast vulnerable districts or the entire country. An ex-ante economic assessment procedure is applied to examine the potential economic gains (losses) of alternative wheat land use. Results indicate maize, lentils, onions and garlic show potential as feasible alternatives if done as a portfolio combination and with adequate support to ameliorate and ease the transition; whereas boro rice, gram and potato do not appear feasible. Still, considering market volatility, overall food security and logistic challenges, the findings do not support a potentially comprehensive, strict and permanent ‘wheat holiday’ across the entire country. Instead, the study calls for research funding for disease epidemiology and forecasting, as well as the development and dissemination of blast-tolerant wheat varieties and complementary practices targeted at Bangladesh and the broader South Asian setting as a more sustainable and feasible solution to combat and manage wheat blast.
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